Extracted 03OCT2011 from http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/newsletters/2011_10classic.html
Executives usually underestimate uncertainty to imagine a future precise enough to shape a discounted-cash-flow analysis. But in truly uncertain times, the resulting strategies may neither defend the company against threats nor exploit its opportunities. These executives may then throw up their hands and base strategy on pure instinct. Yet even in the most uncertain environments, strategically important knowledge abounds.